For November, given the previous month’s sharp rally, OSK expects some pullback in global markets, with Malaysia being no exception.
Barring the announcement of a General Election, OSK remains defensive on the Malaysian market and would advocate a BUY only if the KLCI retraces towards 1,300 pts, while we may call a SELL if the market heads towards 1,533 pts. Maintain NEUTRAL for now.
The table below is the target price for OSK’s November 2011 top picks.
While the destruction arising from the floods is undoubtedly major, it may indirectly benefit some Malaysian companies. Companies involved in tourism and healthcare in Malaysia may benefit from traffic diverted from Thailand, a trend that may continue even after the flood waters recede. Consumer companies may get a short term lift from increased exports to Thailand.
On the other hand, automotive and technology companies are the biggest losers.
Below are the target prices/fair value and ratings for stocks to benefit.
OSK still foresees potential for further market retracement, although a possible deep recession can probably be averted. However, OSK maintains 2012 KLCI fair value at 1466 pts seeing a slow recovery forward unlike in 2009.
OSK is recommending Telcos, Consumer, Healthcare and Media as defensive sectors. With the market approaching 1350pts non recessionary bottom, OSK believes some Bottom “Nibbling” would be reasonable, although aggressive bottom fishing is not recommended.
The table below is the OSK top 10 stocks for a bottom ‘nibbling’ including fair value, dividend yield & rating.
The global sell-off in equities has definitely raised the risk of an early recession. While it’s still early days yet to say that a bear market is taking hold, OSK feel that it is prudent to highlight a list of alternative defensive stocks for the longer run that would benefit in the event a recession does set in early.
These stocks will benefit from a drop in incomes and commodity prices and are generally more inward looking as OSK believe domestic incomes should be more resilient.
The tables below are OSK’s alternative stocks which contains, target price, rating & the reason for the selection.
While markets did not rally as much as expected in 1H2011, OSK are keeping our view of an election-fuelled rally towards year-end, bringing the KLCI to 1680-pt target.
Banks, Oil & Gas, Construction, Property & Healthcare/Media remain OSK Preferred sectors. OSK Top Buys are generally extracted from these sectors.
OSK note that their Top Buys are not cheap but they continue to promote these stocks on account of their lower risk profile and the cautious mood in the market.
Below are OSK Top Buys for 2H2011